Week 12 Thanksgiving Thursday Night Football Props: Falcons vs Saints

  • NFC South rivals Atlanta and New Orleans renew hostilities on Thanksgiving.
  • Perhaps unwisely, we're stepping right in front of the Saints' high-flying offense when it comes to this week's props. 
  • We're also banking on Atlanta's pass rush remaining a very stoppable force. 

Our Week 11 plays resulted in a -$162.96 loss, our first losing week since Week 6. Big swings on a couple longshots didn't pan out, and now the ledger is back in the red for the year at -$68.16.

Let's give thanks that the Thanksgiving slate brings some solid prop action. In the late game, New Orleans (9-1) hosts division rival Atlanta (4-6) riding a nine-game SU win streak and eight-game ATS win streak.

Go here for a full Falcons vs Saints game preview. Keep reading for our analysis of the best props to bet when these two (usually) explosive offenses lock horns on Thursday, (Nov. 22, 8:20 PM ET).

Prop #1: Falcons Under 1.5 Sacks

How many sacks will the Falcons record? Odds at 
OVER 1.5 +105
UNDER 1.5  -125

The Falcons only have 19 sacks on the year, which is 28th in the league. New Orleans has surrendered a league-low 9 on the year and zero in the last four gamesThere's not much more that needs to be said, but I will anyway, because I'm paid to write.

Drew Brees gets the ball out lightning-quick and he's working behind one of the best pass-protection lines in the league. Also, once the Saints grab the lead, they'll start feeding Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara.

Prop #2: Saints Do Not Score in Each Quarter

Will the Saints score in each quarter? Odds at BetOnline
YES -145
NO +125

The Saints have scored in 15 of their last 16 quarters (93.75%). The Falcons have given up points in 15 of their last 20 quarters (75%). Take those together and you have an 84.38% chance that the Saints score in any given quarter. Multiply by four and you get a 52% chance the Saints score in all four quarters.

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The -145 odds on the YES side have an implied probability of 59.2%. Betting against the New Orleans offense is a terrifying proposition, but the math says it's the right play.

Prop #3: No TD of 55 Yards or Longer

Will either team score a touchdown of at least 55 yards? Odds at BetOnline
YES -110
NO -110

As dynamic as these offenses are, they have both scored just two TDS of 55 yards or longer this season. Yes, one came in their first meeting …

… but again, the math says the NO is the right play. To get value at -110, the prop only needs a 53% chance of success. Based on the season to date, these teams are only scoring a 55-yard TD in about 40% of their games.

The post Week 12 Thanksgiving Thursday Night Football Props: Falcons vs Saints appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Original source: https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/nfl/week-12-thanksgiving-props-falcons-saints/

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