Updated: July 10, 2025
- Bovada favors Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes to pass for the most yardage in Sunday's Conference Championship Games
- This season, Mahomes joined Peyton Manning as the only NFL QBs to pass for 5,000 yards and 50 TDs in the same season
- Mahomes threw for 278 yards in the Chiefs' Divisional Round win over the Colts
Some are viewing Sunday's AFC Conference Championship Game as a proverbial passing of the torch in terms of great NFL QBs. It's the GOAT – Tom Brady, 41, of the New England Patriots, with his five Super Bowl rings, facing the kid – Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, 23, who will be making his second career NFL postseason start.
Tom Brady (2001) & Patrick Mahomes (2018) in First Seasons as Starter
COMP PCT
• TB: 63.9
• PM: 66.0PASS YPG
• TB: 189.5
• PM: 318.6TD-INT
• TB: 18-12
• PM: 50-12Passer Rating
• TB: 86.5
• PM: 113.8Season Result
• TB: Won Super Bowl XXXVI
• PM: ???#NEvsKC— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) January 15, 2019
Bovada, for one, thinks that Mahomes will carry the day. The sportsbook is offering odds favoring Mahomes to lead all quarterbacks in passing yardage during Conference Championship Sunday.
Odds to Record Most Passing Yards During NFL Conference Championships
| Player | Team | Odds to Record Most Passing Yards During NFL Conference Championships at Bovada (01/15/19) |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | +225 |
| Drew Brees | NO | +275 |
| Jared Goff | LAR | +275 |
| Tom Brady | NE | +275 |
Of the four surviving starting QBs, Mahomes threw for the third-most yardage in the Divisional Round, finishing with 278. Both Brady (343) and Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints (301) finished with more yards. Only Jared Goff (186) of the Los Angeles Rams was less productive.
Will Mahomes Answer the Conference Call?
The numbers show that Mahomes clearly dialed back the dominance during the fourth quarter of the NFL regular season. The last time he passed for 300 yards in a game was in Week 14, a 377-yard effort in a 27-24 victory over the Baltimore Ravens. That's also the only time he's reached the 300-yard plateau in his past six games
During the regular season, Mahomes displayed remarkable consistency against playoff-caliber teams. Against the Baltimore Ravens, he passed for 377 yards and two touchdowns.
In his matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals, another playoff hopeful, Mahomes racked up 358 yards with four touchdowns. These performances highlight his ability to excel under pressure and against stiff competition.
Patrick Mahomes' passing chat vs IND: pic.twitter.com/AEY3SjXeC4
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) January 15, 2019
Prior to that, Mahomes was a passing yardage machine. He threw for a season-high 478 yards in Week 11 against the Los Angeles Rams and passed for 300 or more yards in nine of the first 11 games of the 2018 NFL season.
Comparative Analysis of Quarterback Performances
When comparing quarterbacks, Mahomes stands out with a remarkable season. He achieved a completion rate of 66.0%, surpassing many of his peers.
His 50 touchdown passes also set him apart, illustrating his efficiency and skill in the pocket. Seeing these stats, it's easy to understand why he's favored to lead in yardage.
Mahomes Did Light Up the Patriots
In a 43-40 Week Six loss at New England, Mahomes torched the Patriots defense for 352 yards and four touchdowns.
Is this wizardry enough to beat the GOAT? ??? @PatrickMahomes5 pic.twitter.com/u6CP5phprF
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) January 14, 2019
As impressive as those numbers are, that was just his third-best TD pass output of the season and his fifth-highest yardage compilation.
Weather Conditions and Potential Impact
Weather can play a big role in games like this, especially in Kansas City. Forecasts predict cold and possibly snowy conditions, which could affect passing accuracy and receivers' footing.
Mahomes has played well in adverse conditions, though, showing he can adapt his game when nature intervenes.
Should You Be Doubting Thomas?
In that game against Kansas City, Brady passed for 340 yards. He's averaged 330 yards passing per game in his last 16 postseason appearances.
Tom Brady was better then Patrick Mahomes , Drew Brees , Nick Foles , Dak Presscot , Andrew Luck ,Jared Goff And Phillip Rivers
In the Divisional Round.Brady had the highest Comp% (77.2%), most passing yards (343 yards) and highest passer rating (106.5) in the Divisional Round pic.twitter.com/38XjfZhLzD
— Boston Sports #1 (@BF6NEPats) January 14, 2019
Since that game against the Chiefs, the Patriots have allowed just two QBS to pass for 300 yards in a game against them.
Drew Brees and Tom Brady will each be at least 15 years older than Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes. It will be the 2 largest age gaps between starting QBs in conference championship history. pic.twitter.com/gtKzak8sx2
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 15, 2019
Matchup History and Team Performance in Conference Championships
Historically, the Chiefs have shown mixed results in conference championships. Recently, they have improved, largely due to Mahomes' presence.
Against the Patriots, they seek to rewrite history, as Tom Brady's Patriots have often stood in their way. This matchup promises another thrilling chapter in their rivalry.
When the Saints beat the Rams 45-35 in Week Nine, both Brees (346 yards) and Goff (391) had field days through the air.
We like all of them to throw for more yards than Mahomes in the Conference Championship games, but since we have to settle for one, we'll stick with the proven commodity and go with Brady.
The post Mahomes Favored to Throw for Most Yards in Conference Championships appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.
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