AFC Championship Player Props: Patriots vs Chiefs

January 19, 2019

Updated: February 22, 2024

  • The New England Patriots take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship game on Sunday
  • In Week 6, the Patriots beat the Chiefs 43-40 in New England
  • Check out our favorite AFC Championship Props

After one of the best games in the AFC this season, the Patriots and Chiefs are set up for a rematch with a spot in the Super Bowl on the line.

Tom Brady will take on Patrick Mahomes for the second time, in what is the biggest age difference between two starting QBs in NFL playoff history.

But we're not looking at the signal callers in this week's props. It's their weapons that take center stage.

Prop #1: Receptions By Tyreek Hill

Number of Tyreek Hill CatchesOdds at
6+ receptions-175
7+ receptions+110
8+ receptions+163

Tyreek Hill has absolutely killed the Patriots in his career.

He caught seven balls for 133 yards and a touchdown in 2017. This year, Hill had seven catches for 142 yards and three touchdowns.

Stacking up his career numbers, it’s clear Hill likes playing New England.

Tyreek Hill vs New England and the Rest of the NFL
Hill vs NE
Hill vs NFL
7Catches per Game4.6
137.5Yards per Game66
2TD per Game0.47
1.5Rushing Attempts per Game1.3
2.5Rushing Yards per Game10.5

Hill has at least four catches in five-straight games, including eight against the Colts. He is one of the hardest receivers to defend in the NFL.

His 9.0 yards-per-catch against the Colts was his second lowest total of the season. With that likely because of the cold, and KC expected to be even colder on Sunday night, don’t expect him to maintain that 19.6 career mark against the Pats.

The Pick: Hill hauls in at least seven receptions (+110)

Prop #2: Receptions and Receiving Yards for Rob Gronkowski

PropOdds at BetOnline (01/17/19)
6+ receptions for Rob Gronkowski+175
76+ receiving yards for Rob Gronkowski+133

Rob Gronkowski’s struggles as a pass catcher are well-documented. But his run blocking was pristine against the Chargers. Expect a similar throwback for Gronk in the passing game Sunday.

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In Week 6, Gronk was used sparingly. After a first quarter catch, he didn’t re-emerge on the stat sheet until the fourth quarter. He caught two key Tom Brady passes on the Pats’ last two scoring drives.

In fact, that game marked the split in Gronkowski’s season from productive, to ‘over-the-hill'.

Rob Gronkowski Season Splits

WeekGames MissedREC/TargetsYardsYards per CatchTDCatch %
Week 1-6026/3540515.58174.3
Week 7-17321/3727713.19256.8

Like Hill, the weather is going to throw the Pats’ plans for Gronk awry. But cold or not, he’ll still be a handful for the Chiefs’ defense.

KC’s Eric Murray and Daniel Sorensen logged a 68.2 and a 68.0 coverage rating from Pro Football Focus. Dorian O’Daniel is the only linebacker with over 200 coverage snaps to rate higher than 60.0. Eric Berry, the great Gronk eraser, is a question mark.

Expect high volume for Gronk, in hopes he can exploit a winnable match-up.

The Pick: Package the two together for a Gronk-aissance (+216)

Prop #3: Total Carries for Michel and Williams

PropOdds at BetOnline (01/17/19)
18+ carries for Damien Williams+124
22+ carries for Sony Michel+125

In the Divisional round, both the Chiefs and Patriots unleashed their running games.

New England had been getting pretty regular contributions out of Sony Michel. Since Kareem Hunt was suspended however, KC's running game had been hit and miss to close out the season.

Sony Michel and Damien Williams Divisional Round Statistics

Sony Michel vs LAC
Damien Williams vs IND
40Longest Run24

Michel's second career 100-yard game came in their Week 6 match-up. Hunt led the Chiefs with 80 yards on ten carries.

Again, if that “arctic blast” holds true, then there will be added importance on the running game. Even if one team pulls ahead significantly, the conditions may mean that they can't abandon running entirely.

Both will get plenty of carries on Sunday.

The Pick: Michel and Williams are relied on in bad weather (+404)

The post AFC Championship Player Props: Patriots vs Chiefs appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

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Author Andy

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