Why Model Picks Differ from Public Opinion on the Super Bowl

Why Model Picks Differ from Public Opinion on the Super Bowl
The Pregame Divide

A contrarian forecast is most useful before it is dismissed.

By Friday night, the television panel is unanimous, fan polls look lopsided, and social media treats one team’s victory as inevitable. Then a statistical model gives the opponent a 57% chance to win. That does not prove the model has found a secret—or made an obvious mistake. It signals that the two sides may be answering different questions.

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