Updated: September 23, 2025
- NFC South rivals Atlanta and New Orleans renew hostilities on Thanksgiving.
- Perhaps unwisely, we're stepping right in front of the Saints' high-flying offense when it comes to this week's props.
- We're also banking on Atlanta's pass rush remaining a very stoppable force.
Our Week 11 plays resulted in a -$162.96 loss, our first losing week since Week 6. Big swings on a couple longshots didn't pan out, and now the ledger is back in the red for the year at -$68.16.
Let's give thanks that the Thanksgiving slate brings some solid prop action. In the late game, New Orleans (9-1) hosts division rival Atlanta (4-6) riding a nine-game SU win streak and eight-game ATS win streak.
Go here for a full Falcons vs Saints game preview. Keep reading for our analysis of the best props to bet when these two (usually) explosive offenses lock horns on Thursday, (Nov. 22, 8:20 PM ET).
Prop #1: Falcons Under 1.5 Sacks
Recent Performance of the Falcons' Defense
The Falcons' defense this season has been inconsistent. While they’ve had standout performances, such as limiting high-scoring teams on occasion, their pass rush remains a work in progress.
Their sack total has improved slightly but still ranks below average in the league. This could impact their ability to disrupt a strong offense like the Saints'.
| How many sacks will the Falcons record? | Odds at BetOnline |
|---|---|
| OVER 1.5 | +105 |
| UNDER 1.5 | -125 |
The Falcons only have 19 sacks on the year, which is 28th in the league. New Orleans has surrendered a league-low 9 on the year and zero in the last four games. There's not much more that needs to be said, but I will anyway, because I'm paid to write.
These defenses are PRESSURING opposing QBs the most this season!
Negative plays, turnovers and penalties are just a few of the issues that happen vs pressure.#LARams #DUUUVAL #HereWeGo #GoPats #BeRedSeeRed #GoPackGo #ChiefsKingdom #Texans #Seahawks #Skol #RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/dbApMts8FX
— NFL Matchup on ESPN (@NFLMatchup) November 19, 2018
Drew Brees gets the ball out lightning-quick and he's working behind one of the best pass-protection lines in the league. Also, once the Saints grab the lead, they'll start feeding Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara.
Prop #2: Saints Do Not Score in Each Quarter
Saints' Offensive Strategy Updates
The Saints have added new dimensions to their offensive strategy. With key acquisitions and a focus on their run game, they've become less predictable.
This balanced attack might affect defenses differently, as they now need to anticipate both passing and rushing plays.
| Will the Saints score in each quarter? | Odds at BetOnline |
|---|---|
| YES | -145 |
| NO | +125 |
The Saints have scored in 15 of their last 16 quarters (93.75%). The Falcons have given up points in 15 of their last 20 quarters (75%). Take those together and you have an 84.38% chance that the Saints score in any given quarter. Multiply by four and you get a 52% chance the Saints score in all four quarters.
The -145 odds on the YES side have an implied probability of 59.2%. Betting against the New Orleans offense is a terrifying proposition, but the math says it's the right play.
Prop #3: No TD of 55 Yards or Longer
| Will either team score a touchdown of at least 55 yards? | Odds at BetOnline |
|---|---|
| YES | -110 |
| NO | -110 |
As dynamic as these offenses are, they have both scored just two TDS of 55 yards or longer this season. Yes, one came in their first meeting …
Calvin Ridley smokes the Saints for a 75-yard TOUCHDOWN #NOvsATL pic.twitter.com/YbUwVsO7AK
— FlurrySports (@FlurrySports) September 23, 2018
… but again, the math says the NO is the right play. To get value at -110, the prop only needs a 53% chance of success. Based on the season to date, these teams are only scoring a 55-yard TD in about 40% of their games.
Key Player Performances to Watch
Keep an eye on star players like Alvin Kamara and Calvin Ridley. Kamara has been instrumental in the Saints' ground and passing game, showing exceptional versatility.
Ridley has been a playmaker for the Falcons, capable of breaking games open with big plays when he's on the field. These players are likely to have a significant impact on the game's outcome.
The post Week 12 Thanksgiving Thursday Night Football Props: Falcons vs Saints appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.
Original source: https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/nfl/week-12-thanksgiving-props-falcons-saints/
