Is There a Pattern in the Super Bowl Trends?

Updated: September 22, 2023

Some people might think that since the Super Bowl is different every year, there would not be any Super Bowl trends. This could make sense because it may be impossible to develop betting trends for a game that has a different venue and participants every year.

Super Bowl Trends Spread and Total

However, it is wrong to think this way. This is because, in terms of the betting line, the Super Bowl has created some convincing trends, especially recently.

The trends do not seem to be as strong in terms of the total. First, look at the betting trends at the Super Bowl that deal with the spread, and then, look at the betting trends at the Super Bowl that deal with the total.

Spread Betting Trends at the Super Bowl

Since the Super Bowl in 2000, the underdogs have won against the spread 10 times, while the favorites have covered the spread only 4 times.

The only evenly matched Super Bowl game happened in 2015 when the New England Patriots beat the Seattle Seahawks 28-24.

The Super Bowl 2000 was the only push when the St. Louis Rams beat the Tennessee Titans 31-24, which was exactly by 7 points.

There is one interesting point about the pattern. Although the underdogs have determined the trend betting advantage over the favorites during the Super Bowls from the year 2000 onwards, there is a sensible pattern in the Super Bowl trends in the last six wins that the underdogs have beaten the spread.

As the underdogs, the New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, and New Orleans Saints have covered against the spread from 2008-2010.

As the favorites during the Super Bowl in 2011, Green Bay Packers have covered the spread.

Then, up until the Super Bowl in 2015, the underdogs have won 3 consecutive Super Bowl titles: the New York Giants in 2012, the Baltimore Ravens in 2013, and the Seattle Seahawks in 2014.

Study the Pattern

The key in analyzing the pattern is to determine whether or not the evenly matched New England Patriots win in 2015 can be considered as a win for the underdogs or as a win for the favorites.

If it is considered a win for the favorites and if the bettors believe that there is a pattern, then they should have backed against the spread win of the Denver Broncos in the Super Bowl this year.

Now, if it can be considered as a win for the underdogs, the bettors should have backed the Carolina Panthers because the trend seems to be that after three wins by the underdogs, the favorites in the Super Bowl should win against the spread.

The odds went the other way, though, because the underdog Broncos won 24-10.

Total Over/Under Betting Trends in the Super Bowl

In terms of Total Over/Under in the Super Bowl trends, you will not find any pattern.

When it comes to betting for the Super Bowl total next year, you can simply use your personal preference and best judgment.

In the Super Bowl, most expert bettors go on the side of the defense.