Vegas NFL Player Prop Bets for your Fantasy League
Updated: February 20, 2024
Vegas NFL player prop bets are fun and provide sportsbooks and bettors extra income during the regular season and play-offs. More importantly, they play a major role when it comes to a well-loved football activity.
Fantasy football is a popular hobby wherein participants build their own team by “drafting” their players of choice. They play the roles of general manager and coach, and each week, they choose their lineup. They compete with each other using the players’ actual performance on the field such as number of touchdowns, rushing yards, receptions, etc. They are guided by player prop bets which Vegas sportsbooks release during the morning of the games.
Fantasy football is dependent on the numbers produced by player prop bets. By analyzing these player prop bets, they will be able to predict the performances of their players.
To better understand this concept, the NFL player prop bet sheet during week 20 of the regular season will be used as an example. The total number of touchdown passes of Cam Newton, quarterback for the Carolina Panthers, had an O/U (Over/Under) of 1.5, with -150 to go O (Over) and +120 to go U (Under).
This type of betting is called moneyline betting. Moneyline as defined by SportingCharts.com is “a type of betting line which lays out the amount a player must wager in order to win $100.00, or the amount the player wins on a wager of $100.00”. This means that if you bet on Cam Newton to go under 1.5 touchdown passes, you will have to wager $100 to gain a $120 profit for a total of $320. On the other hand, if you bet on him to go over 1.5, you will have to pay $150 to gain $100. If your wager is right, you will earn a total of $250.
The latter situation will be more profitable to Vegas. In other words, Vegas is stating that there is a higher probability for Cam Newton to have over 1.5 touchdown passes.
You can now use this information for your fantasy football game because you are quite confident that putting Cam Newton in your lineup will give you at least one touchdown pass.
Using another example, Peyton Manning of the Denver Broncos has an O/U of 1.5 touchdown passes. With the probability of him going under (-125), being higher than the probability of him going over (-105). With this, you now know that he is more likely to give you 1 or less touchdown pass as opposed to more.[content-egg module=Youtube template=custom/slider]
Waiting for the player prop bet sheets released by Vegas on a given weekend will help you evaluate your players for your fantasy football game. These numbers are accurately computed by experts based on the statistics of the players. For instance, Peyton Manning played a total of 10 games during the season with 9 touchdown passes. This means that the mean of his TD passes is set at 0.9. The player prop bet sheets confirm this by showing that he is more likely to get less than 1.5 TD passes. By analyzing concrete facts, you are one step closer to becoming a better fantasy football coach/manager.