How Vig Affects Super Bowl Odds and Expected Payouts

How Does Vig Affect Super Bowl Odds and Your Expected Payouts
The Cost Behind the Odds

A strong prediction can still be a losing bet when the sportsbook’s price demands too much accuracy.

Suppose a bettor believes a Super Bowl favorite wins 52% of the time. That sounds playable—until the moneyline is -120. A $120 stake returns only $100 in profit, so the bet must win 54.5% of the time just to break even. The prediction may be sensible, but the expected payout does not justify the risk.

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