- The defending champs live on and head to New Orleans January 13th at 4:40pm EST to cap off the Divisional Round of the playoffs
- Will we see the Saints offense explode as they did in Week 11?
- Have a look at my three favorite player props for the game
The NFC's 6-seeded, and defending Super Bowl champion, Philadelphia Eagles head south to the top-seeded New Orleans Saints and will attempt to keep their four-game playoff win streak going.
But let's get to the meat and potatoes: player props!
When betting player props, or pretty much anything, I like to win. Odds are against you right from the beginning, so I'm not a huge fan of parlays.
So let's have a look a my three favorite player props for the NFC Divisional Playoff between Philadelphia and New Orleans.
Player Prop #1: Drew Brees Throws for 321+ Yards
|Drew Brees passing yardage||BetOnline Odds|
|Brees at least 301 passing yards||-116|
|Brees at least 321 passing yards||+106|
|Brees at least 341 passing yards||+134|
The matchup between the Eagles and Saints offers the NFL's 30th and 29th ranked defenses against the pass. This game should feature plenty of passing with both teams owning stout defensive fronts and questionable secondaries.
The Eagles ranked 30th in pass defense, giving up 269.2 yards per game through the air in the regular season. And tack Mitch Trubisky's 303 yards in last week's Wild Card game on top of that.
In Week 11 against the Eagles, Drew Brees completed 73.3% of attempts, +20.5% Above Expectation, his best performance relative to expectation this [email protected] has finished below expectation in just 3 games this season, all of which came on the road.#PHIvsNO #GoSaints pic.twitter.com/RTZfx9hmBD
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 9, 2019
Drew Brees averaged 266.1 yards passing per game in 2018. At home that number jumps to 281.3.
Five out of the seven games the Saints hosted (that Brees played), he threw for at least 326 yards, with four games of at least 346 yards.
In Week 11, Brees put up 363 yards at home in a 48-7 drumming of the Eagles. No matter how this game works out, 321 yards through the air is very attainable for Brees under the friendly confines of the Superdome.
Player Prop #2: Michael Thomas has 96+ Receiving Yards
|Michael Thomas receving yards||BetOnline Odds|
|Thomas at least 81 receiving yards||-115|
|Thomas at least 96 receiving yards||+127|
|Thomas at least 111 receiving yards||+199|
Michael Thomas rode a blistering three-game start to a 125-1,405-9 16-game stat line.
Thomas, like the Saints offense as a whole, performed much better at home, accumulating 822 of his 1,405 yards under the bright lights of the Superdome.
The Week 11 matchup with the Eagles saw Thomas take a backseat to teammate Tre'Quan Smith, but still mustered 4-92-1.
Michael Thomas gets the benefit of being at home this week … and it's been a sizable one this year. pic.twitter.com/65m15ZGxIJ
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) January 10, 2019
The Saints have plenty of options for Drew Brees to spread the ball around, and emerging Eagles corner Tre Maddox is worrisome. But big players make big plays in big games, and if the Saints want to fend off the defending champs they will need the Brees-Thomas combo to be on point.
I love the +127 odds on a very modest receiving day (96 receiving yards) from one of the league's most dominant receivers.
Prop #3: Alshon Jeffery has 6+ Receptions
|Alshon Jeffery receptions||BetOnline Odds|
|Jeffery at least 5 receptions||-164|
|Jeffery at least 6 receptions||+108|
|Jeffery at least 7 receptions||+233|
Ok, I will admit the first two props I am really high on; this one I'm a little less confident in, but that's why it's #3.
Alshon Jeffery leads the Eagles wide receivers in targets since Nick Foles took over in Week 15 with 27. Jeffery has hauled in 22 of those targets, and has at least six receptions in two of those four games, including last week against a strong Bears defense.
Eagles targets in four games since Nick Foles took over in Week 15:
Zach Ertz (34)
Alshon Jeffery (27)
Golden Tate (22)
Nelson Agholor (21)
Darren Sproles (16)
Wendell Smallwood (13)
Dallas Goedert (12)
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 8, 2019
With a talented group of receivers, the Eagles production can be a little scattershot. But Jeffery is the top option behind Eagles talented tight end Zach Ertz.
In a big game against a big-time offense, Jeffery's downfield ability and physical traits should show out. I like Jeffery for at least eight targets, which if his 81% catch rate with Foles since Week 15 holds, gives him 6 catches.
The potential for a shootout is there, which only adds to the value of this bet.
Goodluck and enjoy the Divisional Round of the playoffs!
The post Eagles vs Saints Player Props (Divisional Round) – Brees & Thomas Won't be Stopped appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.