Drew Brees is Officially the New 2018 NFL MVP Favorite

Updated: September 23, 2025

• Drew Brees threw four touchdown passes in the Saints 48-7 victory over the Eagles in Week 11
• Brees has now thrown 11 TDs in his last three games and no INTs
• The Saints pivot has taken over as the favorite to win the 2018 NFL MVP

One of the biggest atrocities of the modern day NFL is the fact that Drew Brees does not have one single NFL MVP to his name.

Drew Brees, the quarterback who owns five of the nine 5,000-yard passing seasons in NFL history. This is the same man who is now the league's all-time leader in completions and passing yards, and has also led the league in passing touchdowns on four occasions. (He's second all-time in career passing TDs, too.)

This all-time great has never been honored with the league's MVP award.

Drew Brees' Career Achievements Leading Up to 2018

Drew Brees has had an illustrious career filled with remarkable achievements. Before 2018, he led the New Orleans Saints to a Super Bowl victory in 2010, earning the title of Super Bowl MVP. He has been selected to numerous Pro Bowls, highlighting his steady performance over the years. Notably, Brees holds several NFL records, including the highest single-season completion percentage and multiple 5,000-yard passing seasons. These feats signify his lasting impact on the NFL.

But this abomination may finally be coming to an end, as Brees has overtaken Patrick Mahomes as the favorite for the award.

2018 NFL MVP Odds

*Follow the link in the table for more MVP betting options

Patrick Mahomes emerged as a strong contender. He had 50 touchdown passes and over 5,000 passing yards in 2018. Jared Goff also stood out, leading the Rams to a 13-3 regular-season record. Todd Gurley made a significant impact with 1,831 scrimmage yards and 21 touchdowns, while Andrew Luck's comeback season featured 39 touchdowns, energizing the Colts' offense.

Mahomes had emerged as the favorite following Week 3, when the second-year QB threw three more TDs, bringing his season total up to an NFL-record 13.

The Chiefs' signal-caller has remained the favorite ever since, and even became an odds-on favorite just two weeks ago.

But all that has changed now, as he relinquishes that title to Brees.

To see this movement, head to our 2018 NFL MVP Odds Tracker.

Brees the New Favorite

At 39 years old, Brees may be having his greatest season yet.

Drew Brees had a field day against the defending Super Bowl Champions ? pic.twitter.com/gYQD4zFYfq

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 19, 2018

No, he's not going to break Peyton Manning's record for passing yards in a season, and most likely won't add another 5,000-yard season either. It's also extremely unlikely he breaks Manning's record for passing touchdowns in a season, and probably won't even lead the league in that category this year.

But he doesn't need to do any of that to win the MVP.

One of the craziest charts I’ve ever seen. These are Brees’ stats on tight window throws vs Mahomes. Look at that completion %!!!! pic.twitter.com/UatGzXHqtU

— Mike Renner (@PFF_Mike) November 21, 2018

Instead, Brees has played the position to near perfection, putting up unbelievably efficient numbers.

The pivot is pushing his own record for completion percentage, which he set last year, completing 76.9% of his passes, and has only thrown one (ONE!) interception in 334 attempts.

The BEST throws from @DrewBrees‘ four touchdown day! #PHIvsNO pic.twitter.com/k67NqFM0Yq

— NFL (@NFL) November 19, 2018

Add in 25 touchdown passes, 11 of which have come in the last three weeks, and an average of 296.4 passing yards per game, and his absurd 126.9 passer rating on the season starts to make sense.

Brees is making the most difficult position in all of sports look far too easy.

And perhaps the most important stat working in Brees' favor is that the Saints are 9-1, having recorded wins over the Rams, Vikings, and Eagles. Looking to the last 16 MVPs, only two were on teams that failed to win at least 12 games – Matt Ryan in 2016 (11-5) and Adrian Peterson in 2012 (10-6).

Historical Trends in NFL MVP Voting

Historically, NFL MVP voting has favored quarterbacks from successful teams. Players like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, who led standout teams, frequently received the award. Recent voting trends show MVPs usually come from teams with strong postseason expectations. The voters often consider a player’s ability to boost their team’s success as part of their evaluation.

It's not supposed to be an award based off team success, but it almost always plays a major factor in the voters' decisions.

Drew Brees' leadership has been crucial to the Saints’ success. His ability to inspire teammates is evident in their strong on-field chemistry.

Coach Sean Payton and fellow players often commend his work ethic and commitment. Brees’ presence on the field lifts team spirit, driving them to perform at their best. This makes him not just a statistical leader, but a true team motivator.

Is there Still a Case for Mahomes?

Of course there is.

This race is far from over. There are still six weeks of football to be played, and it won't be every week that Kansas City's opponent forces them into desperation mode to add to their 51 points already on the board.

*Denotes a league-best

In fact, if you didn't listen back in August when we said take Brees at +1400, now is not the time to bet the Saints QB.

But if you did get him at those longer odds, or don't have any money on either yet, Mahomes is the smarter bet right now. One of these two will win it.

The post Drew Brees is Officially the New 2018 NFL MVP Favorite appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

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