Updated: November 20, 2025
- The Dallas Cowboys have shot up the Super Bowl 53 futures the last two weeks.
- They are now favored to win the NFC East despite sitting a game behind Washington.
- Is there value betting on Dallas to lift the Lombardi Trophy in Atlanta this season?
Two weeks ago, the Dallas Cowboys (5-5) were left for dead. They had fallen to 3-5 after dropping a disappointing home game to Tennessee in prime-time (28-14). But a two-game road win streak has drastically altered their outlook. If they beat Washington — which is now without starting QB Alex Smith — on Thanksgiving, they will move into a tie for first in the NFC East.
The Cowboys' Super Bowl 53 odds have improved along with their record. As our Super Bowl 53 Odds Tracker shows, Big D was at a distant +11900 after losing to Tennessee, behind both Washington and Philadelphia. Now they're at +4400, which is not only best in the East, but also top ten in the NFL.
Bovada is particularly high on Dallas' chances, shortening their odds to +4000 after a solid 22-19 road win over Atlanta in Week 11.
Super Bowl 53 Odds after Week 11
| Team | Record | Odds at Bovada (Nov. 20) |
|---|---|---|
| LA Rams | 10-1 | +325 |
| New Orleans Saints | 9-1 | +325 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 9-2 | +550 |
| New England Patriots | 7-3 | +650 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7-2-1 | +900 |
| Chicago Bears | 7-3 | +1500 |
| LA Chargers | 7-3 | +1500 |
| Houston Texans | 7-3 | +2000 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 5-4-1 | +2200 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 5-5 | +4000 |
Are the Cowboys Good Value?
Players like Ezekiel Elliott showed their mettle, accumulating over 1,400 rushing yards. His contributions were key in giving the Cowboys a shot at the playoffs.
Dak Prescott's leadership also shone in important games, making their offensive line more formidable.
Dallas' +4000 odds carry an implied probability of 2.4%. If we played the season 100 times from here, would Dallas win the Super Bowl three times? If so, there's value on the Cowboys at +4000. If not, it's a bad bet.
Unfortunately for Dallas fans, the math says to stay away.
The best case regular-season scenario is that Dallas wins the division and hosts a game on Wild Card weekend. (They're not catching the Saints or Rams and getting a bye.)
Vikings loss means #Panthers hold on to top NFC Wild Card spot. Seahawks game will have big implications. pic.twitter.com/RmWOu6J6la
— Nick Carboni (@NickCarboniWCNC) November 19, 2018
If they win that game, they would then (in all likelihood) have to beat both the Saints and Rams just to advance to the Super Bowl.
Dallas would probably be a short favorite at home against Carolina, Seattle, or Minnesota in the Wild Card round. Let's call it Dallas -3. General consensus is that 3-point favorites win about 60% of the time.
| Point Spread | Approximate Chance to Win |
|---|---|
| PK | 50% |
| +1.0 | 47% |
| +1.5 | 45% |
| +2.0 | 43% |
| +2.5 | 41.5% |
| +3.0 | 40% |
| +3.5 | 38% |
| +4.0 | 36% |
| +4.5 | 34.5% |
| +5.0 | 33% |
| +5.5 | 31% |
| +6.0 | 29% |
| +6.5 | 27.5% |
| +7.0 | 26% |
In the Divisional Playoffs, the Cowboys would be at least touchdown underdogs against either the Rams or Saints (and that's being generous). General consensus is that 7-point underdogs win about 25-26% of the time.
They would be looking at a similar scenario in the NFC Championship Game unless, say, the Bears upset the Saints/Rams. Let's again be generous to the Boys and call it Dallas +6 in the NFC title game, which gives them a 29-30% chance to win.
If they get through the NFC gauntlet, the AFC champ would obviously await in the Super Bowl. Assuming either the Chiefs, Patriots, or Steelers emerge from the AFC, the Cowboys would be an underdog for the third straight game.
In keeping with our generosity to Dallas, we'll set the Super Bowl line at Dallas +2.0 (~43% chance to win).
Ok, now it's time for some math: 60% x 25% x 30% x 43% = … drumroll please … 1.9%!
Oy.
The moral of the story is that, by my math, if we play the season out 100 times, Dallas doesn't win more than two Super Bowls.
And don't forget, my math is based on a best-case where the Cowboys win the NFC East, which is far from a lock.
Updated odds to win the NFC East after Week 11 (Smith injury, another PHI loss) per @BovadaOfficial #Cowboys: -110#Redskins: +180#Eagles: +375#Giants: +8000#NFLBetting #GamblingTwitter pic.twitter.com/Nu2j6PH44s
— Matt McEwan (@SBD_Matt) November 20, 2018
NFC East Competitor Analysis
During the 2018 season, Dallas faced stiff competition in the NFC East.
While Washington struggled with injuries, Philadelphia aimed for consistency. The Eagles, led by Nick Foles, posed a considerable threat, boasting a strong defensive line. Each game against these rivals tested Dallas's refreshed strategy and resilience through the latter part of the season.
Jason Garrett's strategic focus on a solid defense and run-focused offense paid off. Adjustments such as better clock management and creative play-calling boosted the Cowboys' game plan.
Improved player rotations helped maintain energy levels, ensuring the team remained competitive.
The post Cowboys Among Top 10 Super Bowl 53 Contenders After Week 11 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.
Original source: https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/nfl/cowboys-super-bowl-53-odds/
Super Bowl 53 Final Outcome
Super Bowl 53 saw the New England Patriots emerge victorious against the Los Angeles Rams, winning 13-3.
It was a low-scoring affair dominated by defensive play, showcasing Bill Belichick's tactical prowess. While the Cowboys didn't make it, the season provided valuable insights and potential for future campaigns.
