Updated: December 1, 2025
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There's an old adage among front office executives of NFL teams. In regards to the conclusion of Week 1 of the NFL season. The 50% of teams in the league who win their opening game will begin wondering if they'll lose at all that upcoming season, and the 50% of teams who lose their opening game will begin to wonder if they'll win a single game all year long.
Deep down, people in and around the league know the truth: that Week 1 of any NFL season offers some of the wonkiest — and often meaningless — results, especially in the grand scheme of the marathon that each season ends up being.
Historical Patterns of Week 1 Surprises
Historical season openers in the NFL are often filled with unexpected results. For instance, in 1993, the two-time defending Super Bowl champions, the Dallas Cowboys, lost to the Washington Redskins in their season opener. The Redskins went on to miss the playoffs entirely. Additionally, in 2003, the Minnesota Vikings delivered a surprise by defeating the Green Bay Packers, a team that was favored for a division title. Similar upsets have occurred regularly through the decades, underlining the uncertainty and excitement that Week 1 brings.
[su_spacer][su_quote]After Week 1 of the 2016 NFL season last year, the team that represented the NFC in the Super Bowl — the Atlanta Falcons — lost to a team that failed to make the playoffs (Tampa Bay). The team with the second best record in all of football (the
Dallas Cowboys) also lost their opening game. The San Francisco 49ers, who finished with the second-worst record in football last year (2-14), won their Week 1 game in resounding fashion — a 28-0 trouncing of the Los Angeles Rams — and then went on to win only one of their next 15 games.[/su_quote]
So, at the risk of overplaying or underplaying any team's performance during NFL week 1, let's all slow-down with the all the hot takes, proclamations, and panicking, shall we?
Effect of Preseason on Week 1 Performances
Teams approach the preseason with varying strategies, often impacting how they perform in Week 1. Some teams prioritize resting key players to avoid injuries, leading to rusty starts, while others use preseason games to build momentum and cohesion. The shortened preseason schedule contributes to this trend, as teams have fewer opportunities to identify strengths and weaknesses before competitive play begins.
Kansas City's offense isn't as prolific as everyone is making it out to be. New England's defense isn't as bad as everyone is making it out to be. Jacksonville's defense won't maintain their pace for finishing this season with 160 sacks of opposing quarterbacks. The New York Giants won't maintain their pace for scoring a grand total of 48 points this season. The Los Angeles Rams won't have the #1 point differential in the NFL for much longer. The Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions aren't going to finish the season with an undefeated record. The Seattle Seahawks aren't going to finish the season with a winless record.
Injuries can shake up a team's game plan right out of the gate. The 2008 Patriots felt this when Tom Brady was injured in Week 1, altering their trajectory for the season. Similarly, teams that lose key players early must rapidly adapt, which complicates predictions and adds to the unpredictable nature of Week 1.
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Watch Highlights of Every Touchdown From NFL Week 1
Tom Brady isn't going to finish the year without ever throwing a touchdown pass. Alex Smith won't maintain his pace for throwing 64 touchdown passes this year. Andy Dalton won't continue his current pace of turn the football over 80 times this season. Deshone Kizer and Jared Goff won't have more touchdowns passes than Marcus Mariota and Russell Wilson for much longer.
Le'Veon Bell won't be ranked below 29 other running backs and two different quarterbacks, in terms of total rushing yards. Antonio Brown won't maintain his pace for catching 176 passes this year. Austin Hooper can’t possible maintain his average of 64 yards per catch.
So, enjoy NFL week 1 for what it was… because it was just one week of a long football season. There's still plenty more football to go, and plenty more for all of this season's stories to unfold.
(Although, if you're still wondering: yes, the Indianapolis Colts and New York Jets really are that bad. What we saw from them last week is probably a very good sign of things to come for them this year. Apologies to fans of those teams.)
Play at The Best NFL Betting sportsbook sites for NFL Week 2
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