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Super Bowl betting in Las Vegas sportsbooks surpassed $119 million dollars in 2017. Worldwide figures are estimated to be 40 times larger, totaling a whopping $4.76 billion dollars. From casual bettors to professional gamblers, those wanting to place action on the game grow year over year. Obviously, whether a simple $10 bet is being placed, or a seven-digit wager is on the line, one wants to employ a wagering strategy that will yield the best chances of winning.
Super Bowl Betting Strategy
What does this mean if you are planning to wager on the favorite?
It means that you should get in as early as possible. This is especially true if your team is strongly favored. While spreads and money lines do fluctuate in both directions, runaway Super Bowl favorites will usually offer you the best value early on.
It is best to get your bet in before the influx of money widens the spread that must be covered or makes the money line sky rocket. Getting in at -9 1/2 is way better than waiting until your team is -11. Likewise, laying 280 to win 100 is a much better value than having to lay 350 to win the same amount.
2019 Super Bowl Bets To Make
Which Super Bowl bet should you make?. Take a look a these most common wagers and be informed.
Money Line Bets
Some Super Bowl betting wagerers find money line bets as the most secure way to back a heavy favorite. However, this level of wagering security does come with some sacrifice, namely in your risk to reward ratio. The amount that you risk will be one-and-a-half to three times larger than the amount that you expect to win. The attractive side to this is that you don't have to worry about your team covering a spread. A straight up win is all you need.
Alternate Point Spreads
The traditional bet for the favorite to cover the spread, however, also has derivatives that savvy bettors can take advantage of. These come in the form of alternate point spreads. Take as an example a team that is favored to win the Super Bowl betting by 10 1/2 points. Following your analysis you feel confident that your team will win, but you feel that a margin of victory larger than a touchdown and a field goal is just too large for your comfort zone.
You'd feel much more comfortable if your team only had to cover 6 1/2 or 7 points. This is where alternate point spreads have a role in your “follow the favorite” strategy. You can “purchase” alternate point spreads for the favorite, making the spread more palatable. These alternate spreads can be used to increase or decrease the normal spread in half-point increments.
Of course, this action comes with a cost. Whereas placing a bet with the normal spread is a -110 proposition, you risk 110 to win 100; using alternate spreads modifies the money line that is attached to it. The narrower that you make the spread that the favorite must cover, the more expensive that the money line becomes.
Alternate Point Spreads Example
As an example, if the normal Super Bowl betting spread has the Patriots as minus 10 1/2 favorites, and you want to take the Patriots with an alternate spread of minus 9, the amount that you are expected to risk to win 100 might jump to 185, up from the standard 110.
Alternate spreads can also be used to leverage up your potential winnings. If the spread for the Super Bowl favorite is, by your trusted analysis, too low, you can increase this spread above the normal line. Make a 6 1/2 point favorite a 7 1/2 point favorite, as an example. In this case, if the favorite covers the higher alternate spread you could win, say, 135 for each 100 wagered. By taking on slightly more risk, your reward increases as well.
The same ‘alternate spread' concept also applies to the over/under line. By either lowering or raising the normal total line, you can take on more security for your bet by sacrificing the amount of your potential return, or you can increment your potential winnings by assuming larger risk.
Bet on Super Bowl's Quarters and Halves
A variation of the “bet the favorite” strategy incorporates betting on the Super Bowl's individual quarters and halves. Just as with the game as a whole, each quarter and half has its own point spread, money line and over/under. This can be seen as playing four games in one. It also allows for the bettor to take into account the teams actions from the earlier quarters and incorporate them into their live betting strategy. This allows the bettor the flexibility to follow the actual game flow in addition to the money.
The favorite in one quarter might not be the favorite in the following quarters. It allows for a mechanism to develop to fine tune your wagers as the game progresses. This can be very useful when there is no clear favorite. Usually in those circumstances it will be the actual play action that will dictate who is the real favorite and the only way to follow the favorite in that situation is with quarter and half betting.
Super Bowl Parlays and Teasers
Parlays and teasers, quite popular with bettors in the regular season, are also available for the Super Bowl. The only difference being that instead of making your selections across the entire weekly card of matchups, all of your selections must come from the Super Bowl game itself. Bettors can take the money line and parlay it to the totals, or the spread to the totals. Depending on the wagering site, some may even allow the bettor to parlay Super Bowl selections with the outcome of other sporting events from that same day.
Super Bowl Prop Bets
Most betting sites and brick and mortar sportsbooks also offer broad menus for Super Bowl prop bets. Everything, from which team will score first, to whether or not there will be a safety, to the result of the coin toss is included in this motley mix of proposition bets. While not strictly part of a “favorite strategy” they can serve as a way to add excitement to the game for those that find a “bet the favorite” strategy too boring. Secure a sound bet on a favorite and use a larger bucket of smaller prop bets to keep the game interesting, so to speak.
What is clear is that using a strategy that focuses on the Super Bowl favorite does not have to deny the bettor of options. It can be used to lower risk, just as it can be used to maximize reward. It can even be used to incorporate last minute changes in play analysis once the game has already started. From every angle, the favorite can bring you, the bettor, a positive outcome.
Super Bowl Odds Tracker
Get the latest news on the odds for Super Bowl LIII at Bovada sportsbook. With the era of dominance by the Patriots seemingly at an end see which teams are making the frame as we head into November's play.
Every empire has to come to an end, and so it seems the the end is near for the New England Patriots. They haven't imploded right now, in spite of an off season full of royal residence intrigue, yet the Patriots are no longer the No. 1 team on the Super Bowl LIII odds board. That honor looks most likely to be heading in the direction of the Los Angeles Rams, the NFL's only unbeaten team heading right into Week 7.
It isn't just the Rams attempting to knock New England off their perch. Various other challengers have actually stepped up, as the NFL goes into something of a new age with its readiness to welcome analytics as well as unique play calling– thus minimizing the benefit Patriots head coach Bill Belichick used to appreciate over his less creative contemporaries. Will New England's Super Bowl betting odds have the ability to maintain as the season marches on?.
1. Los Angeles Rams: +333 Super Bowl Odds
In a sense, Sean McVay has currently taken over from Belichick as the NFL's leading thinker. McVay won AP Coach of the Year honors as a rookie and also now has the Rams (6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS) before the Super Dish chase, with QB Jared Goff well on his way to yet another Pro Bowl. However it's not all peaches and also cream in La Land. They've went down the cash in three straight games since CB Aqib Talib was lost for the season with an ankle joint injury. The Rams have 6 defensive gamers on damaged reserve as well as one (LB Ogbonnia Okoronkwo) on the PUPPY listing, although Okoronkwo is currently qualified to return after missing out on the very first six games.
2. New England Patriots: +600 Super Bowl Odds
It's a little early to put dust on New England's grave. The Patriots (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) left to a slow start, as they often do, but they've won three straight games at 2-1 ATS because picking up WR Josh Gordon from the Cleveland Browns. In between Gordon's arrival as well as the return of WR Julian Edelman from his four-game PED suspension, QB Tom Brady looks extra like his old self nowadays, as well as New England's chances to win Super Bowl 53 have actually reduced from +650 to +600 therefore. Playing a soft timetable in the AFC East ought to keep the Pats strongly in the playoff photo.
3. Kansas City Chiefs: +700 Super Bowl Odds
It was still white-knuckle time for the Patriots when they hosted the Chiefs (5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS) in Week 6. Kansas City maintained returning from the dead, as Pat Mahomes two times led his group back from fourth-quarter deficits, just to see New England kick a last-second field goal to win 43-40 as 3.5-point house faves. In spite of the loss, Kansas City's 2019 Super Dish probabilities have moved right from +1200 to +700; Mahomes leads the NFL with 18 TD passes, showing head coach Andy Reid correct for relieving him in slowly in 2014 rather than throwing Mahomes to the wolves.
4. New Orleans Saints: +800 Super Bowl Chances
The Saints (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) have become classy once again. They still don't have a great defense, but the combination of head coach Sean Payton as well as QB Drew Brees is as potent as ever– maybe even more so with the organization's brand-new focus on safeguarding quarterbacks. But there's one more key to their success: New Orleans have played the most convenient schedule in the organization so far, and they will run the gauntlet appearing of their bye week, with hard games meeting the Rams and also the next team on our checklist.
5. Minnesota Vikings: +1200 Super Bowl Odds
That Week 8 matchup with the Vikings (3-2-1 SU and ATS) would be even tougher if CB Mike Hughes hadn't torn his ACL last Sunday in Minnesota's win over the Arizona Cardinals. Hughes, their first-round pick at the 2018 NFL Draft, paid instant rewards in Week 1, scoring a pick-six to aid the Vikes beat the San Francisco 49ers. Minnesota's additional was currently on the ropes prior to Hughes was lost for the season– currently they need to handle among the league's most challenging schedules between currently as well as the playoffs. The Vikings will have to connect those defensive holes if they desire a genuine shot at ultimately winning their initial Super Bowl.
*Bovada Odds accurate as of October 19, 2018