Perennial MVP Contenders Brady and Rodgers Falling Out of 2018 Race

Updated: September 25, 2025

• Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers were the top two contenders for the 2018 NFL MVP when odds opened
• Both have seen their odds fall off dramatically in the past couple weeks
• Is there value in betting either one?

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After a New England loss to the Tennessee Titans and the Packers dropping two of their last three, it’s not really a shocker that this news comes out.

The Patriots' defeat by the Titans highlighted defensive breakdowns, as they allowed over 30 points.

The Packers' struggles were rooted in offensive inconsistencies and defensive lapses, contributing to losses against teams with explosive offenses. These issues have complicated their path to reclaiming their top contender status.

Tom Brady hasn’t looked like the classic GOAT we all know and love (or hate), and despite a win over Miami last weekend, the Pack haven’t looked like the Pack.

2018 NFL MVP Odds

!function(e,t,n,s){var i=”InfogramEmbeds”,o=e.getElementsByTagName(t)[0],d=/^http:/.test(e.location)?”http:”:”https:”;if(/^/{2}/.test(s)&&(s=d+s),window[i]&&window[i].initialized)window[i].process&&window[i].process();else if(!e.getElementById(n)){var a=e.createElement(t);a.async=1,a.id=n,a.src=s,o.parentNode.insertBefore(a,o)}}(document,”script”,”infogram-async”,”https://e.infogram.com/js/dist/embed-loader-min.js”); The 2018 NFL MVP odds have certainly come a long way since Week 1. (You have to select Top 5 Contenders tab to see Rodgers, and Top 10 to see Brady.)

Performance Trends of Brady and Rodgers

Heading into Week 10 of the 2018 season, both Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers showed signs of inconsistency. Brady threw for over 2,700 yards and 17 touchdowns, but his usual precision faltered with seven interceptions, more than expected for the highly experienced QB.

Rodgers, with over 2,500 yards, maintained a solid touchdown-to-interception ratio. Yet, his completion rate dipped below his career average, reflecting the challenges the Packers faced offensively. These fluctuations have impacted their positioning in the MVP race.

Odds to Win NFL MVP at Bovada

*Follow the link in the table to see all betting options

Comparison with Other MVP Contenders

In contrast, Patrick Mahomes led with stellar stats, including over 3,000 passing yards and 31 touchdowns, making him a frontrunner.

Drew Brees' precision, exemplified by a 77% completion rate, placed him among the leaders too. This comparison illustrates why Brady and Rodgers have lagged behind in the MVP odds.

Brady opened as the favorite for the award back on April 10th at +600 with Rodgers trailing closely behind at +700. The two jockeyed for the top spot all offseason, but it didn’t take long for Brady’s odds to take a tumble when the regular season started. Rodgers, on the other hand, saw his odds get shorter after an incredible comeback on Sunday Night Football of Week 1 against the Bears. But since then, he too has seen his odds getting longer and longer.

Historically, both quarterbacks have faced mid-season odds shifts.

In prior seasons, Brady and Rodgers have shown resilience, often surging late to reclaim their status as MVP favorites. Their historical comebacks add an interesting layer to their current odds situation in 2018.

Now, the question remains, how do these two get back in the running? In this case, winning performances are everything and the NFL schedule will help them as much possible.

Remaining Schedules are Attractive for Brady and Rodgers

Tom Brady will only have to face a team above .500 two more times this year. Meanwhile, of their seven remaining games, Aaron Rodgers will face a team over .500 just twice as well. Brady will see the lowly Jets twice along with the meandering Dolphins and Bills. The Packers will face the spiraling Seahawks, Cardinals, Falcons, Jets and Lions. In other words, the chances are high that they’ll be back among the top contenders for the MVP soon. For this to even begin to come anywhere near fruition though, the Packers will have to beat Seattle. Something that, on the road, they’ve been unable to pull off for a very long time.

#Packers have won the last 3 meetings against the #Seahawks . Those were all at home. Last time Green Bay won in Seattle? 2008, Rodgers first year as a starter… @JacobWestendorf and I tell you how the Packers get the win tomorrow in Seattle. https://t.co/bGKmC8aKYz

— Nicholas Schmitz (@sportsschmitty) November 14, 2018

Thursday Night Matchup with Seahawks Pivotal for Rodgers

Thursday Night Football could be a playoff elimination game for both squads. With just four wins on the board each, both Seattle and Green Bay will be playing to stay “In the Hunt” for the postseason. Given the ‘Discount Double-Check’ hasn’t won in Seattle in ages and everything else on the line, it’s probably safe to say we can expect a classic Rodgers-like effort on TNF.

Brady Gets the Jets After Patriots’ Bye

Meanwhile, what can we expect of TB12 against the New York Jets? Well, the road is a lot easier for Tom in his next game than it is for his counterpart in green and gold. The Jets couldn’t put any heat on a Buffalo third-stringer last weekend and got pummeled. If the Jets can make Matt Barkley look like a good QB, just imagine how good they’ll make a Hall of Famer look in Week 12.

Are they Worth a Wager?

Crazier things have happened in seven weeks of football. Considering where their odds currently stand, a small wager on either – or even both – could certainly look genius in just a matter of a few weeks. The post Perennial MVP Contenders Brady and Rodgers Falling Out of 2018 Race appeared first on Sports Betting Dime. Original source: https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/nfl/perennial-mvp-contenders-brady-rodgers-falling-2018-race/