Opening Odds to Win Super Bowl 55 MVP
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes passes during the second half of an NFL football game against the Atlanta Falcons Sunday, Dec. 27, 2020, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
- Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has opened as the favorite to win Super Bowl 55 MVP
- Mahomes won the award last season when the Chiefs beat the San Francisco 49ers in the title game
- A deeper look at all the odds and some value plays can be found below
Last year’s Super Bowl MVP is favored to repeat this year, according to the opening odds.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is a +325 favorite. He is followed by five other quarterbacks in the Green Bay Packers’ Aaron Rodgers, the Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen, the New Orleans Saints’ Drew Brees, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Tom Brady, and the Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson.
Let’s take a deeper look at the odds.
Super Bowl 55 MVP Odds
|Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)||+325|
|Aaron Rodgers (Packers)||+625|
|Josh Allen (Bills)||+1000|
|Drew Brees (Saints)||+1300|
|Tom Brady (Buccaneers)||+1500|
|Lamar Jackson (Ravens)||+1600|
|Tyreek Hill (Chiefs)||+1800|
|Russell Wilson (Seahawks)||+1800|
|Travis Kelce (Chiefs)||+2000|
|Davante Adams (Packers)||+2500|
|Stefon Diggs (Bills)||+4000|
|Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers)||+4000|
|Michael Thomas (Saints)||+4000|
|Tyrann Mathieu (Chiefs)||+4000|
|Jared Goff (Rams)||+5000|
|Derrick Henry (Titans)||+5000|
|Taysom Hill (Saints)||+5000|
|Aaron Jones (Packers(||+5000|
|Alvin Kamara (Saints)||+5000|
|Ryan Tannehill (Titans)||+5000|
|Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs(||+6000|
|Philip Rivers (Colts)||+6000|
|Za’Darius Smith (Packers)||+7000|
|Baker Mayfield (Browns)||+8000|
|DK Metcalf (Seahawks)||+10000|
|Ronald Jones (Buccaneers)||+10000|
|Jaire Alexander (Packers)||+12500|
|Trey Hendrickson (Saints)||+12500|
|Bobby Wagner (Seahawks)||+12500|
|T.J. Watt (Steelers)||+12500|
|Devin White (Buccaneers)||+12500|
|Mark Andrews (Ravens)||+15000|
|Marquise Brown (Ravens)||+15000|
|Aaron Donald (Rams)||+15000|
|Chris Godwin (Buccaneers)||+15000|
|Mitchell Trubisky (Bears)||+15000|
|Devin Singletary (Bills)||+15000|
|Alex Smith (Washington)||+15000|
|Tre’Davious White (Bills)||+15000|
|Chris Carson (Seahawks)||+17500|
|Tyler Lockett (Seahawks)||+17500|
|J.K. Dobbins (Ravens)||+20000|
|Rob Gronkowski (Buccaneers)||+20000|
|James Conner (Steelers)||+25000|
|Jonathan Taylor (Colts)||+25000|
|Cam Akers (Rams)||+25000|
|Myles Garrett (Browns)||+25000|
|Darius Leonard (Colts)||+25000|
|Yannick Ngakoue (Ravens)||+25000|
|Nick Chubb (Browns)||+30000|
|JuJu Smith-Schuster (Steelers)||+30000|
|Chase Claypool (Steelers)||+30000|
|Jadeveon Clowney (Titans)||+35000|
|Cooper Kupp (Rams)||+35000|
|Kareem Hunt (Browns)||+40000|
|A.J. Brown (Titans)||+50000|
|T.Y. Hilton (Colts)||+50000|
|Khalil Mack (Bears)||+50000|
|Jarvis Landry (Browns)||+50000|
|Terry McLaurin (Washington)||+50000|
|Jalen Ramsey (Rams)||+50000|
|Allen Robinson (Bears)||+50000|
|Chase Young (Washington)||+75000|
|Antonio Gibson (Washington)||+100000|
|David Montgomery (Bears)||+100000|
Odds taken Jan. 5 at DraftKings
Mahomes Logical Favorite
It certainly makes sense that Mahomes is the top pick as the Chiefs are heavy favorites to repeat as Super Bowl champions.
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) May 3, 2020
The Chiefs finished the regular season with the best record in the NFL at 14-2. That gives them one of just two byes into the divisional round of the postseason and assures them of having home field advantage at Arrowhead Stadium throughout the playoffs.
Mahomes is also having another outstanding season. He has completed 66.3% of his passes for 4,740 yards and 38 touchdowns with six interceptions.
Mahomes’ average of 316.0 passing yards a game is also top in the NFL as he sat out the Chiefs’ 38-21 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in Sunday’s meaningless finale.
Here’s your Patrick Mahomes fix since Chad Henne gets the start 😎 pic.twitter.com/pumxqMHeGA
— Chiefs Highlights (@ChiefsHighlight) January 3, 2021
Despite being 25, Mahomes is also a proven postseason performer. He led the Chiefs to their first Super Bowl title in 50 years last season after taking them to the AFC Championship Game in 2018 in his first year as a starter.
Mahomes has a 4-1 record in five career playoff starts with a 62.5% completion rate, 1,474 yards, 13 touchdowns, and just two interceptions.
History Unkind to Rodgers
While Rodgers is the second choice to be Super Bowl MVP, he is the odds-on favorite to be the NFL MVP in the regular season. Rodgers led the Packers to the best record in the NFC at 13-3, also giving his team a bye and home-field advantage in the conference playoffs.
The 36-year-old clearly has MVP credentials. He led the league in touchdown passes (48), completion percentage (70.7), average yards per attempt (9.6), and passer rating (121.5).
— Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL) January 4, 2021
As far as postseason play, Rodgers’ record is 10-8 and he has led the Packers to the Super Bowl only one time when they beat the Pittsburgh Steelers to complete the 2010 season. He was MVP of that game with 304 yards passing and three TD throws.
Winning both the regular-season and Super Bowls MVPs in the same season is rare, though, as just six players have done it and none in the last 20 years – Bart Starr (1966), Terry Bradshaw (1978), Joe Montana (1989), Emmitt Smith (1993), Steve Young (1994), and Kurt Warner (1999).
Amazingly, the regular season MVP has wound up on the losing team in the Super Bowl 17 times. Thus, history does not bode particularly well for Rodgers.
2021 AFC and NFC Championship Odds Tracker
Recent SB MVP Trends
Three of the past five Super Bowls have been quarterbacks, not a surprise in a league that has become dominated by passing
Last Five Super Bowl MVPs
|2018-19||Julian Edelman||Patriots||Wide receiver|
Edelman represented wide receivers while a defensive player did capture Super Bowl MVP in 2015 when Von Miler and Denver Broncos shut down regular-season MVP Cam Newton.
After 60 Broncos seasons, an appreciation:
My favorite playoff wins, counted down:
February 7, 2016. Super Bowl 50. In Peyton's last game, MVP Von Miller and the great Broncos defense shut down the Panthers 24-10 to bring Lombardi back home to Denver!#BroncosCountry pic.twitter.com/mFiTtrcgC3
— Broncos Outsider (@BroncosOutside) January 26, 2020
The trend suggests a QB will win the award, which is why the top six players on the board all play the position. However, the chances of a quarterback winning MVP are not as strong as the regular season when a QB has captured the award the last eight seasons.
Looking for Value
While Mahomes and Rodgers might look like the best bets, don’t be so sure they are locks to be this year’s Super Bowl MVP.
Working against Mahomes is that no team has repeated as Super Bowl championship since the New England Patriots in 2003 and 2004. And the previously mentioned history does not make Rodgers’ prospects look promising.
The two best value bets on the board are Brees at +1300 and Jackson at +1600.
This is starting to look like Brees’ final season and the Saints are good enough to send the 41-year-old out a winner before he joins NBC’s Sunday Night Football telecasts.
The ball placement from Drew Brees on this throw yesterday was absurd. Also, Callaway is a damn good player already. pic.twitter.com/1wHmNTOCo7
— Chris Rosvoglou (@RosvoglouReport) January 4, 2021
The Ravens enter the playoffs as hot as any team in the league with five straight wins. Jackson also has plenty of incentive after what happened to the Ravens last January.
Baltimore had the best record in the regular season at 14-2 then lost at home to the Tennessee Titans in its first playoff game. Jackson lost two fumbles and threw an interception after winning NFL MVP in the regular season.
And for a bit of a longer shot, let’s go with Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs at +4000. Both he and Buffalo are having magical seasons Diggs led the NFL with 127 receptions and 1,535 receiving yards.
John Perrotto has been covering and writing about sports for various outlets for over 40 years. His work has appeared in the likes of USA TODAY, ESPN.com, SI.com, Forbes.com, The Associated Press, Baseball Digest, and more. John is based out of Beaver Falls, PA.