Odds Only Slightly Against a Wild Card Team Making Super Bowl 53

Updated: September 5, 2025

• No Wild Card team has reached or won the Super Bowl since 2010
• BetOnline is offering oddly short odds for one of the Colts, Eagles, Seahawks, or Chargers to make Super Bowl 53
• Is the “No” an easy play here?

One of the reasons this year's NFL Playoffs are so intriguing is that there's no weak link among the 12-team field.

There's no Buffalo Bills, or Miami Dolphins, or Brock Osweiler-Texans here to act as a double-digit dog and a quick one and done.

Every team left standing is legitimately scary. The only nine-win club of the bunch just happens to be the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.

The #NFLPlayoffs are SET! pic.twitter.com/O7ytoh8Tl9

— NFL (@NFL) December 31, 2018

The Eagles, along with the Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Chargers, and Seattle Seahawks, are all terrifying opponents in their own right, but each one still has an awfully tough path to make it to Atlanta.

Yet, one betting site seems to like their chances.

Odds a Wild Card Team Makes the Super Bowl

*All odds taken 01/03

When I first saw this prop I was shocked.

We already went over how important home games are to making the Super Bowl earlier this week, and the idea that you can take the top four seeds in each conference to make the big game for only -250 seemed like excellent value.

Then there was this prop as well.

Odds a Wild Card Team Wins the Super Bowl

Are both bets a shoo-in?

The History of Wild Card Teams in the Super Bowl

A stat I've heard a lot this week as Eagles fans get hyped for another magical Nick Foles run is that 10 wild card teams have made the Super Bowl and six have gone on to win it.

That doesn't really capture the struggle of the modern NFL wild card.

The #Eagles are hoping to become the 11th wild card team to make it to the Super Bowl.

Here's a look back at the previous 10: https://t.co/5GtasY1Bld

— Dave Zangaro (@DZangaroNBCS) January 2, 2019

Historical Wild Card Team Upheavals

Over the years, wild card teams have pulled off some memorable upsets. The 1997 Denver Broncos shocked the world by beating higher-seeded opponents on their path to the title.

Similarly, the 2000 Ravens dominated defensively and claimed victory, altering the landscape for underdogs.

These memorable runs remain a beacon of hope for today's wild card contenders.

Evolution of Wild Card Success in NFL Playoffs

Wild card teams have seen varying levels of success in the playoffs over the years. In the early days, the structure of the playoffs varied, giving these teams different challenges.

By the late 2000s, the playoffs had evolved to include more intense competition, making wild card victories noteworthy. Teams like the 2010 Packers and the 2007 Giants defied odds, showing that even as lower seeds, they could claim victory against all odds.

When the NFL used to have just three divisions, wild card teams could host an opening playoff game. Only the '85 Patriots, '05 Steelers, '07 Giants, and '10 Packers have actually reached a Super Bowl by winning three road games.

Whether it's referee bias or crowd noise, winning in another team's stadium in January is a challenge. Doing it thrice is damn near impossible.

The Odds of These Teams Doing It

I've already mentioned I do like the Chargers to make a run this postseason, mostly based off the fact that they always play road games. However, that still doesn't mean the YES is good value.

My biggest problem with this prop is that BetOnline has far overvalued the Eagles.

UPDATED: Odds to win the Superbowl

Saints 5-2
Chiefs 9-2
Rams 5-1
Patriots 6-1
Bears 8-1
Ravens 14-1
Chargers 16-1
Eagles 16-1
Cowboys 25-1
Texans 25-1
Colts 25-1
Seahawks 25-1

(Prices via @betonline_ag )

— Todd Fuhrman (@ToddFuhrman) January 1, 2019

That Philly is getting +1600 to win Super Bowl 53 is just wrong. They're +200 just to win in Chicago this weekend!

According to FiveThirtyEight, the wild card teams have a combined 27% chance to make the Super Bowl. The YES at +170 implies a 37% chance. That's a big gap.

Analysis of Team Performance on the Road

Historically, wild card teams face a tougher road to the Super Bowl, having to win multiple away games.

Statistics reveal that these teams win only about 34% of playoff road games, but some buck the trend.

Recent history highlighted the 2010 Packers, who won three consecutive road games to clinch a Super Bowl spot.

Betting Insights for Wild Card Teams

Betting patterns have evolved, with an increasing number of bettors eyeing potential upsets by these under-the-radar teams.

Odds often start low for wild cards, but as unexpected victories occur, betting interest escalates.

In the 2022 playoffs, for instance, a surprising number of bets supported the Bengals as they advanced, reflecting changing perceptions in sports wagering.

The Play

Hammering the NO on the Wild Card team making Super Bowl 53 is absolutely the way to go here.

There's no need to play the NO on them winning the Super Bowl, because making it there is the hardest part. Once underdogs get on a neutral field, anything can happen.

Recent Wild Card Events and Outcomes

During the 2024 NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs demonstrated their dominance by starting the season with a 9–0 record and finishing with a 15–2 record.

Despite this, their quest for a third consecutive Super Bowl victory ended when they were defeated by the Philadelphia Eagles. The 49ers, who began the season at 5–4, experienced a challenging series of games, ultimately finishing 6–11 and missing the playoffs entirely.

These developments reflect the unpredictable nature of competitive playoff scenarios, where even top contenders face unexpected challenges.

The post Odds Only Slightly Against a Wild Card Team Making Super Bowl 53 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

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