- Steelers linebacker Devin Bush has the second-best odds to win 2019 Defensive Rookie of the Year
- Bush is top 10 in tackles this season
- But 49ers edge rusher Nick Bosa, the highest-graded pass rusher according to PFF, is a daunting favorite
Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Devin Bush was viewed as one the primary contenders to win the Defensive Rookie of the Year award from the outset, starting at +1800.
His NFL DROY odds have only improved since then, jumping to +450 after Week 5 and now +275 entering Week 7. Is he a good bet to win the award or is there value elsewhere?
2019 NFL Defensive Rookie Of The Award Odds
|Player||Odds at Bovada|
|Nick Bosa (49ers, DE)||+180|
|Devin Bush (Steelers, LB)||+275|
|Brian Burns (Panthers, LB)||+333|
|Darnell Savage (Packers, CB)||+1000|
|Josh Allen (Jaguars, DE)||+1200|
|Devin White (Buccaneers, LB)||+2200|
|Ed Oliver (Bills, DT)||+2500|
|Quinnen Williams (Jets, DT)||+2800|
|Dexter Lawrence (Giants, DE)||+2800|
|Chase Winovich (Patriots, DE)||+3300|
*Odds taken 10/16/19.
Bush On Pace For 100+ Tackles
Bush is frequently been complimented for being around the football and the numbers support that. On the season, he has 32 solo tackles and 52 total, which ranks him in the NFL’s top 10. He also has a pair of fumbles returned for touchdowns, two picks, and a sack.
Needless to say, that’s why his odds have shortened.
Favorites to win NFL Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year honors
Devin Bush, Pittsburgh Steelershttps://t.co/CT261wJCUb pic.twitter.com/KxG6rI7rzq
— PFF PIT Steelers (@PFF_Steelers) October 16, 2019
Keep in mind that most of Bush’s damage has been done against his last three opponents (Chargers, Ravens and Bengals). Those three teams are a combined 6-12. He had muted stats in his first three games, which came against teams who are currently 16-1.
It feels like strength of schedule has helped his cause.
Analytics Point To Nick Bosa
The perception around the league is that Bosa has had a bigger impact on the field, even though he has just nine tackles in four games. When you look past the traditional numbers, which also show just three sacks for him so far, you see a rookie who’s already emerged as a game-wrecker.
2019 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds Tracker
Bosa actually leads the NFL – all players – in terms of Pass Rush Productivity, according to Pro Football Focus. On his recent appearance on Monday Night Football, he picked up nine pressures against the Cleveland Browns in just 25 snaps.
Week 5: Bosa once again shows up BIG in run-support by using sound fundamentals to his advantage. He stacks at POA, sets the edge forcing RB to help inside, peeks into backfield and then pursues the attack by disengaging with heavy hands for 5-yard TFL. #GoNiners @nbsmallerbear pic.twitter.com/QtaXyM9Bm4
— Ryan Sakamoto (@BEASTwriter_) October 16, 2019
Bosa also has an edge because he plays for a team that’s 5-0 and one of their main reasons for success is their defense. He is one of the leaders of that pass rush. If he keeps this up, the award should be his.
Burns Is In Play
It’s hard to discount Brian Burns, who has been almost as effective as Bosa so far. While he does have 11 fewer pressures while playing 35 more snaps, he has still picked up 4.5 sacks on the year along with a forced fumble.
The Panthers are going to be relying on him more and more as the season progresses, so he has opportunity. Keep an eye on his injury situation, though.
What’s The Best Bet?
To be honest, Bush has the best traditional numbers and these awards tend to go to those players. In terms of analytics, he hasn’t been nearly as impressive as those numbers suggest.
On the other hand, Bosa has been a monster in terms of the analytics and Burns has been up there with him.
Scary strong???? Nick bosa pic.twitter.com/jW4iPEPCDk
— Trevor Morrison (@trevor65562518) October 16, 2019
At this point, Bush feels like a good bet as his overall stats will probably look the best of the three. He’ll have tackles, interceptions, forced fumbles, and sacks. Bush has the easier path to this award, which is still skewed to traditional metrics.
For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He's interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O'Neal and Floyd Mayweather.