Bovada Expects 1 Road Team to Win in NFL Divisional Round

Updated: January 5, 2026

• Will road underdogs continue their success from the Wild Card Round?
• Which team stands the best chance to pull off an upset?
• Will there be over or under 1.5 road team wins?

Performance of Road Teams in Previous Divisional Rounds

Road teams have faced tough challenges in past NFL Divisional Rounds. Historically, they have struggled to secure wins, with home teams holding a dominant 23-9 record since 2010.

However, some years have seen surprises. The 2009 playoffs were an anomaly with three road victories, a rare occurrence. Such statistics set a tense stage for assessing road teams' prospects each year.

Three road underdogs won last week in the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs.

Bookies aren't expecting a repeat performance from the road teams, however, as the betting odds favor only one road team winning this week.

Odds for Number of Road Teams to Win Divisional Round

Is the AFC the Best Bet for Upsets?

This week's AFC matchups are priced at slightly closer odds when compared to the NFC and something has to give between the LA Chargers and New England Patriots.

The Chargers have been impressive on the road, backed by their 8-1 record this season. Key players like Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon have consistently performed well under pressure.

Their ability to capitalize on turnovers and maintain strong defensive stands has been a major reason for their success.

New England is 8-0 at home this season and Tom Brady has never lost to Philip Rivers in the playoffs.

Tom Brady is 7-0 against Philip Rivers including the playoffs.

That's tied for the 3rd-best record in quarterback matchups in the Super Bowl era. pic.twitter.com/sbg2KUYHq1

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 7, 2019

The Chargers, though, are now 8-1 both straight up and ATS on the road this season. Given their lack of home-field advantage at Dignity Health Sports Park, you could argue they are the most well prepared road team this week.

Rivers is also 21-7 ATS as a road dog of four points or more throughout his career. The Chargers have already taken money with the opening number of +4.5 now down to +4.

89 TDs between the two of them this season, the most ever by 2 QBs meeting in the playoffs. On Luck, Mahomes and the future of the AFC: https://t.co/1QdGOKaGtY

— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) January 8, 2019

Then you have the league's hottest team in the Indianapolis Colts who are 10-1 in their last 11 games and may stand the best chance to pull off an upset. The Colts will make a tough trip to Arrowhead Stadium where the Chiefs are 7-1.

In previous playoff runs, the Colts have often defied expectations. Their recent 10-1 streak reflects a team in form.

Historically, they've thrived in the underdog role, having defeated higher-seeded opponents in past matchups. This history could influence their prospects against the Chiefs.

However, the Colts allow the least sacks in the league with 18, and if given time Andrew Luck and the Colts' seventh-ranked offense could have a big day against KC's 31st ranked defensive unit.

History on the Side of Home Teams

The Under paying -230 is backed up by the fact that since 2010 home teams in the Divisional Round are 23-9 straight up.

Statistical Comparison of Home and Road Teams Since 2010

Since 2010, home teams have dominated, with a 72% win rate in Divisional Rounds.

Road victories are less common but often hard-fought. The average margin of victory for home teams is notable, often exceeding 10 points. These stats illustrate the challenge road teams face.

Over/Under Number of Road Teams to Win in the Divisional Round

Extend that out one more year for a 10-year history and the average improves slightly as during the 2008-09 season, three road teams won in this round. The 2009 playoffs were an anomaly as the only such time three road teams were victorious in that time frame.

ViewFromVegas of #NFL playoffs: with Eagles' road/underdog/under result, road teams & underdogs both 4-0 ATS on wild-card weekend, unders 3-1; first-half dogs went 3-1 ATS, first-half unders went a perfect 4-0; second-half faves were 3-1 ATS, second-half overs went 3-1 @VSiNLive

— Dave Tuley (@ViewFromVegas) January 7, 2019

But according to Pro Football Reference, it's actually the only time three road teams have won since the 1993 playoffs.

This prop is set at 1.5 wins though, and two road teams cashing in has also only happened twice in the past 10 seasons. However it has happened eight times since 1993.

Road Team Wins in Divsional Round Since 2009

I believe the 2019 playoffs could be one of the most wide-open in recent memory. It wouldn't surprise me if at least two upsets came from the AFC alone.

However, neither the New Orleans Saints or LA Rams have been in perfect form the past few weeks.

All 3 times Nick Foles has led Eagles into playoffs, he took over for the starter during season

Since 2013, he is 23–7 as Eagles starting QB

Only Tom Brady & Peyton Manning have higher winning % with one team over that span (min 10 starts)#FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/3rQNvir1UO

— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) December 31, 2018

Despite the Dallas Cowboys having the longest average odds to win the Super Bowl, the Rams' most important player, Todd Gurley, has been dealing with a knee injury and could be limited. While the other NFC matchup sees Nick Foles giving the Eagles belief in another Super Bowl run. The value is on the OVER.

Injuries have a significant impact on outcomes. Todd Gurley's knee issue affects his availability and performance.

Teams often adjust strategies to compensate for such key absences. Historical data show injuries can sway betting odds and game dynamics, stressing the importance of player health.

As far as betting an exact number, I think betting two road team wins at +300 offers the best value. But a smaller payout, yet safer option, may be to bet both the “1” and “2” road team win bets individually with each paying plus-money.

The post Bovada Expects 1 Road Team to Win in NFL Divisional Round appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

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