Bettors Hammering Bears as 6-Point Dogs vs Rams in Week 11

Bettors Hammering Bears as 6-Point Dogs vs Rams in Week 11

Los Angeles Rams football
The Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams clash on Sunday Night Football in Week 11. Photo by Jeffrey Beall (Wiki Commons) [CC License].
  • The Chicago Bears and LA Rams square off on Sunday Night Football (8:20 PM ET, Nov. 17)
  • Both teams have been a disappointment this season and are outside the NFC playoff picture
  • 89% of the betting handle is on the Bears, and 91% of the sharp money is backing Chicago

It’s a loser leaves town match on Sunday Night Football (8:20 PM ET, Nov. 17) when the Los Angeles Rams (5-4) host the Chicago Bears (4-5). Both teams have been a big disappointment so far this season and are outside the NFC playoff picture. While a loss wouldn’t technically eliminate either team from postseason contention, it would all but cripple their already slim chances.

Bears vs Rams Spread and Money Breakdown

Team Spread ATS Money% at
Chicago Bears +6.0 (-102) 89.0%
Los Angeles Rams -6.0 (-118) 11.0%

*Odds taken Nov. 16, 2019

Los Angeles opened as 6.5-point favorites but the line has since moved slightly in the Bears favor. That’s because is reporting 89% of the betting handle is on Chicago and 91% of the sharp money is backing the Bears.

Chicago hasn’t been kind to its backers this season, posting a 3-6 record ATS, with six of those nine games going under the total. Both teams have struggled offensively this season, particularly the Bears, who are averaging just 18 points per game.

Offensively Challenged

Chicago has exceeded 21 points once all season and have been held to under 20 points in five of nine contests. They rank 29th in total offense, 27th in points per game and 30th in passing yards per game. They’re one of only four teams to average less than 200 passing yards and 100 rushing yards per game, and quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has regressed in the worst way possible.

Now he has to face a Rams defensive line that ranks second in pass rush win rate and generates the most pressure in the league without blitzing. LA allows the ninth fewest passing yards per attempt and has held opponents to 20 points or fewer in four straight. It doesn’t look good for Trubisky and the gang on offense.

These Aren’t the 2018 Rams

As bad as Chicago’s offense has looked this season, Los Angeles’ attack hasn’t fared much better. A year after finishing top-two in points and yards per game, the Rams rank outside the top nine in both categories and the bloom appears to be off the Sean McVay rose.

LA’s offense managed just three points last time out versus the Steelers, and Jared Goff is regressing almost as sharply as Trubisky. Goff ranks 28th in passer rating, 27th in QBR and his Pro Football Focus passer grade has fallen from 83.6 in 2018 to 69.8 in 2019. A big reason for his decline has been the shaky play of his offensive line, and that  will almost certainly continue against the Bears.

The unit has surrendered the most QB hurries and the second most pressures in the NFL this season and with two starters on the shelf, it’s setting up to be a long night for Goff. To make matters worse, right tackle Bobby Evans is set to make his first career NFL start and will be forced to lineup against Khalil Mack for most of the night.

Mack’s having a down year in 2019 by his standards, but this is the ultimate get right spot for him and no one should be surprised if he’s breathing down Goff’s neck all game long.

Play the Under

These two teams produced just 21 combined points when they met last season and we could be in for another ugly affair on Sunday’s biggest stage. Both offenses will struggle to move the ball against a pair of rock solid defensive units and the only way to enjoy this slugfest is by pounding the under.

There is an argument for betting the Bears ATS based on the love the sharps are showing them, but you’ll hate yourself for doing so every time Aaron Donald busts through Chicago’s line to drag down Trubisky.

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Chris Amberley

NFL NBA MLB NHL Golf Sport Writer


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