After Goodell Encourages a Team to Sign Kaepernick, QB’s Odds of Being on a Team Week 1 Improving

After Goodell Encourages a Team to Sign Kaepernick, QB’s Odds of Being on a Team Week 1 Improving

Colin Kaepernick kneels

After Goodell publicly advocate for his signing, will Colin Kaepernick make an NFL roster? Photo from @ajplus (Twitter)

  • After Commissioner Roger Goodell encouraged teams to sign QB Colin Kaepernick, his odds of starting the season on an NFL team significantly improved
  • Kaepernick’s chances of being on a Week 1 roster shortened from +500 to +300. Is he a good bet  make it?
  • See the odds on whether Kap will be an active player in the NFL this season below

Roger Goodell has spoken, and now the odds of Colin Kaepernick again playing in the NFL are shortening.

Interviewed Monday by ESPN, NFL Commissioner Goodell recited encouraging words toward NFL teams that might be thinking about giving former San Francisco 49ers quarterback Kaepernick a chance.

“If he wants to resume his career in the NFL, then obviously it’s going to take a team to make that decision,” Goodell told ESPN. “But I welcome that, support a club making that decision and encourage them to do that.”

After the Goodell interview, the odds of Kaepernick starting the 2020 season on an NFL team’s roster shortened from +500 to +300. The odds of the answer being no moved from -900 to -500.

Odds Colin Kaepernick on Active Roster for Game 1 of 2020 NFL Regular Season

Outcome Odds
Yes +300
No -500

Odds taken June 16th

Kaepernick has been out of football since 2017. He was let go by the 49ers after he began taking a knee during the Star Spangled Banner to protest police brutality against black people.

Goodell Making Amends

The recent killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis police brought the Black Lives Matter issue back to the forefront. This time, it’s been clear that the cause is gaining widespread traction among Americans. The NFL could no longer ignore the message being sent by the league’s black players.

Kaepernick was the genesis of the take a knee movement, sparking several other players to follow him. This time, Goodell appears to be listening to their call. The league is suddenly accepting of their cause.

Goodell previously released a video supporting peaceful protest by players, admitting the league was wrong to criticize players at the time. He insisted going forward that the NFL would be supportive of the cause.

However, he was criticized for not originally mentioning Kaepernick. A Harris poll indicated that 61% of Americans believe Goodell owes Kaepernick an apology.

Super Bowl 55 Odds Tracker

Where Might Kaepernick Land?

Supposing NFL teams heed the advice of their leader. Which teams look to be more likely landing spots for Kaepernick?

A team that immediately jumps off the page is the Baltimore Ravens. Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman was Kaepernick’s OC in San Francisco. His head coach with the Niners was Jim Harbaugh. Jim’s brother John coaches in Baltimore.

The Seattle Seahawks are the only team work out Kaepernick since he left San Fran. Seattle head coach Pete Carroll now admits regretting not signing him. Kaepernick is certainly a better option at second-string QB than Geno Smith.

A wildcard in play here could be the New England Patriots. Pats coach Bill Belichick is never shy about giving players a second chance. Currently, there’s a real dearth of talent in the New England QB room.

An Unlikely Outcome

Perhaps Kaepernick’s legacy will be that he fought for the greater good of others. He could be football’s version of baseball all-star Curt Flood. He sacrificed his career to battle baseball’s reserve clause, opening the door for free agency.

As wonderful as a Kaepernick comeback story would be, the reality is that he hasn’t taken a snap in a real game since Jan. 1, 2017. Three years can evaporate from a person’s life in the blink of an eye. But for an athlete to sit idle for three years, that’s an eternity.

Pick: No (-500).

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Robert Duff



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