Super Bowl LIII Moneyline Betting Prediction & Pick

Super Bowl LIII Moneyline Betting Prediction & Pick 1

Updated: August 29, 2022


If you’re an NFL betting enthusiasts that likes making straight-up Money Line wagers that remove the guesswork involved in making often arduous ATS picks, then you’re in for a real treat thanks to the expert Super Bowl 53 Money Line pick that you’re about to get. Whether you like the underdog Los Angeles Rams or the favored New England Patriots, you’re about to find out who’s going to win Super Bowl LIII outright to cover their Money Line odds in our online sportsbook.

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Super Bowl LIII Moneyline Betting Prediction

New England Patriots (13-5) vs. LA Rams (15-3)

Why Bet On The Los Angeles Rams at +125?

Why should you consider betting on Los Angeles to win Super Bowl 53 outright? Let’s see….the Rams (15-3 SU, 9-8-1 ATS, 9-9 O/U) have an explosive offense that finished the regular season ranked second in scoring (32.9 ppg). L.A. also has an outstanding defensive line that features a pair of elite defensive tackles in superstar Aaron Donald and the slightly lesser talented Ndamukong Suh that could apply the requisite pressure on Tom Brady up the middle to force the future Hall of Famer into a poor performance.

“That’s crazy, he’s the GOAT, but it’s just another quarterback, he’s going to try to avoid the pressure, he’s going to try to get down, it’s our job as D-linemen to get to him,” defensive lineman Michael Brockers said.

Another great reason to back L.A. is the fact that the Rams are playing the best defense we’ve seen out of them all season long after they made a bunch of outstanding offseason acquisitions to improve on that side of the ball. L.A. limited Dallas to 22 points in the NFC divisional round while holding the explosive Saints to a modest 23 points in the NFC Championship game.

“You can’t fool the great quarterbacks anyway — you have to outplay them,” defensive coordinator Wade Phillips said.

It should also be noted that the Rams have won seven of nine games away from the cozy comforts of home this season. Last but not least, I believe that if Super Bowl 53 comes down to a field goal, the Rams’ have a rock-solid kicker in veteran Greg Zuerlein that has a huge leg and great accuracy.

  • Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
  • Rams are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
  • Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Why Bet On The New England Patriots at -150?

Why should you bet on New England to win Super Bowl 53 outright? Well, let’s start with the fact that the Patriots (13-5 SU, 11-7 ATS, 7-11 O/U) have a huge edge in postseason experience with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick making their ninth Super Bowl appearance in 18 seasons together. Then, there’s the fact that the Pats have arguably the best quarterback and head coach in NFL History in Brady and Bill Belichick.

“So, it’s going to be a tough game. I mean, we’re not certainly expecting to go 15 minutes into the game and think that it’s over. It’s going to go down to the end. They’ve got a great team. Like I said, we feel like we have a team that can compete well against anybody. We’re going to need to play really well, and that’s what makes for a championship game. Hopefully, we can have our best one of the year.”

Combine that with the fact that the Patriots have gone bonkers on offense in putting up 37 points or more in three straight games and it’s easy to see why New England looks like a good wager to win and cover the chalk as a 2.5-point favorite. Last but not least, the Patriots are highly motivated after losing Super Bowl 52 to Philadelphia and then struggling through, what was for them, an uneven regular season.

“We’re getting at it. This is going to be a big challenge,” Patriots center David Andrews said. “This is a great defense. They produce a multitude of problems. You’ve got [Ndamukong] Suh, you’ve got [Dante] Fowler, you’ve got of course Aaron Donald. They’ve got the whole gambit so it’s going to be a big challenge.”

  • Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 playoff games.
  • Patriots are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Patriots are 20-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Patriots are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games on grass.
  • Patriots are 39-17 ATS in their last 56 games overall.

Expert Moneyline Analysis and Prediction for Super Bowl LIII

While both of these teams benefited from absolutely pitiful calls in their respective conference championship game wins, I feel like New England has too many question marks on the defensive side of the ball to keep Jared Goff and the Rams’ plethora of speedy skill position stars in check for the entirety of Super Bowl 53.

I’m expecting the rams to have some success, particularly through the air, again a New England defense that finished in the bottom third against the pass during the regular season (22nd). I’m expecting New England, like everyone else, will need to double team Aaron Donald to keep him out of Brady’s face, but then, that will open up plays for Ndamukong Suh and everyone else on L.A.’s defense.

The Patriots gave up 24 fourth quarter points against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship and that just doesn’t bode well heading into Super Bowl 53. New England has gone an uninspiring 4-5 SU and ATS in nine road dates this season and New England has gone 2-5 ATS in their last seven Super Bowl appearances.

Super Bowl 53 marks New England’s second straight trip to the Super Bowl and third in the last four seasons. The Pats have reached the Super Bowl in four of the last seven seasons overall. The Patriots have gone 2-2 ATS over their last four Super Bowls while the Over/Under total has gone 3-1. With the Rams going 4-0 ATS in their last four games and the underdog in this little played rivalry going 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, I say back the underdog Rams to cover the small spread – by winning outright!

Super Bowl LIII Moneyline Pick: LA Rams 31 Patriots 28

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