The Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Chargers, and Philadelphia Eagles won their wildcard games this past weekend. They head into the NFL Divisional Playoffs as underdogs versus the Top 2 seeds in both the NFC and AFC. Will the Cowboys, Colts, Chargers, and Eagles play well enough to cover versus their favored opponents? Or, will the favored teams prove why they’re at home for the Divisional Round?
NFL Divisional Round Against the Spread Betting Picks
— NFL (@NFL) January 8, 2019
Saturday, Jan. 12
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs
The 1-seed in the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs, had a strange regular season against the spread. KC started out the hottest team ATS, winning their first 7 against the spread. After being so hot ATS, they ended up failing miserably.
Kansas City went 2-6-1 ATS in their final 9 regular season games. That’s a big contrast to the Colts, who have gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after beating the Houston Texans 21-7 as a +1.5 dog last Saturday.
Not only are the Chiefs cold against the spread, but they don’t have as many advantages on the field against the Colts as some might believe. At 5 points, the Colts are a big play to cover.
NFL Divisional Round Pick: Indianapolis Colts
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams
Dallas went an okay 9-7 against the spread during the regular season. The Cowboys didn’t cover in their 24-22 wildcard win over the Seattle Seahawks because they kicked off as a -2.5 home favorite.
The non-cover must be looked at from the right perspective, though. Dallas scored their final touchdown with a bit more than 2:00 left on the clock. At that point, the Cowboys were up by two scores. Knowing they were up by two scores, they played the Seahawks soft in the final two minutes.
The Cowboys shouldn’t be up by two scores with 2 minutes left against the Rams. Dallas will fight hard to the very end. Dallas plays a team they matchup well with. Also, the Rams have been over bet in every game this season, going 7-8-1 ATS overall and 3-4-1 ATS at home.
NFL Divisional Round Pick: Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, Jan. 13
L.A. Chargers at New England Patriots
The L.A. Chargers looked great when beating the Baltimore Ravens 23-17 during wildcard weekend. Los Angeles allowed the Ravens to get back into the game, though. Baltimore had a chance to actually win towards the end of the game. That’s not a good sign for LAC heading into their battle against the Patriots.
With that being written, the Chargers were an awesome 7-1 against the spread in away games in the regular season. The Patriots do step it up at home, going 6-2 ATS.
This game should come down to how well the Chargers convert red zone opportunities into touchdowns. The Patriots give up a lot of yards, but they’re great in the red zone. The Chargers might also have trouble dealing with the cold while the Patriots are used to the weather.
New England should cover.
NFL Divisional Round Pick: New England Patriots
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints
The Saints pummeled the Eagles during the regular season. Philadelphia’s a different team with Nick Foles, but the Saints have a major edge in this game.
The Eagles are in trouble unless they pressure Drew Brees. The week off figures to have really helped the Saints’ offensive line. If the bigs up front are healthy, they’ll protect Brees who can carve up a secondary that benefited from some questionable play-calling in the upset win over the Bears.
Brees should light up the Eagles’ secondary while the Saints’ defense has had a week to get healthy and prepare for the brilliant Nick Foles. New Orleans is the team to back even though the spread is the highest in any of the 4 NFL Divisional Playoff games this weekend.
NFL Divisional Round Pick: New Orleans Saints