- JJ Watt’s DPOY odds have gone from +400 to +1200 since he last played
- Myles Garrett’s DPOY odds have been slashed in half
- Watt’s price presents tremendous value
What did JJ Watt do to deserve this kind of disrespect? He’s currently enjoying an incredible comeback season and his Texans are on top of the AFC South after reeling off six straight victories.
Yet Watt, who was on bye last week, has seen his Defensive Player of the Year odds balloon to +1200 over at Bovada. Watt’s recent performances show his enduring talent. In 2023, he led defensive efforts with 14.5 sacks and stayed strong against the run. His knack for forcing turnovers had him tied for the highest forced fumbles in the league, which boosts his reputation as a tough defender. He’s been crucial during key moments, helping in several important defensive stands this season.Six straight salute.#VictoryMonday pic.twitter.com/sGWvvAvCy1
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) November 5, 2018
2018 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds
| Player | Odds to Win DPOY at Bovada |
|---|---|
| Aaron Donald | -250 |
| Khalil Mack | +450 |
| Myles Garrett | +1000 |
| JJ Watt | +1200 |
| Danielle Hunter | +2000 |
Watt’s DPOY Case is Still Strong
Watt was the preseason Defensive Player of the Year favorite when odds were released in July, and his play has not only lived up to expectation, it has exceeded it. He ranks first in forced fumbles, third in sacks, fourth in tackles for loss, and seventh in Quarterback hits.He has the NFL’s fastest average time to sack per Next Gen Stats, and anchors a defense that has allowed just 15.2 points per game since Week 5.J.J. Watt through nine games:
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9⃣ sacks 1⃣1⃣ tackles for loss 1⃣6⃣ quarterback hits 4⃣ forced fumbles ? » https://t.co/fJMvOCbpba pic.twitter.com/khpLLR1rTi — Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) November 7, 2018
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Garrett’s Price is a Trap
Myles Garrett is a physical freak. Just check out his combine measurables.He’s enjoying a breakout sophomore campaign, but giving him better DPOY odds than Watt feels like an overreaction. Garrett has played 126 more defensive snaps than Watt this season, but has been less productive. Yes, they both have nine sacks, but Watt has much better numbers against the run. Garrett has just seven tackles for loss, compared to Watt’s 11, despite Cleveland facing the 4th-most rushing attempts in the league. Garrett proved to be a key player for Cleveland, amassing 16 sacks and impacting the team’s defensive strategies. His agility and speed off the edge added significantly, and he achieved a new personal best in quarterback pressures. His influence goes beyond stats, as his leadership has been key to shaping a resilient young defensive group. Garrett is also coming off a game where he didn’t register a single Quarterback pressure according to Pro Football Focus, and his Interim Head Coach seems determined to reduce his playing time, which could cap his upside.Myles Garrett at the combine:
Taller than Julio Jones Heavier than Rob Gronkowski Quicker than Devonta Freeman Faster than Jarvis Landry pic.twitter.com/9Dl6GIJt2F — NFL Research (@NFLResearch) March 5, 2017
Defensive Player of the Year Trends
Recent trends in DPOY selection highlight more emphasis on impactful plays and versatility. It’s not just about sack totals. Selectors value players who disrupt games and lead defenses, as seen in recent winners who excel across various aspects. These trends show a move towards recognizing well-rounded defensive contributions over traditional stats.Watt is the Best Value on the Board
Three weeks ago, I was adamant we needed to bet Donald at +650. Well, the market has since been corrected and Donald’s price now is far too steep. Watt, on the other hand, presents tremendous value, but only if we act quickly.He has a dream matchup Sunday and should terrorize a Redskins offensive line that is missing three starters. If he dominates like he’s shown he’s capable of, that juicy +1200 number will disappear in a heartbeat. The post JJ Watt’s 2018 DPOY Odds Fading; Myles Garrett Making a Move appeared first on Sports Betting Dime. Original source: https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/nfl/jj-watts-2018-dpoy-odds-fading-myles-garrett-making-move/Sack No. 9 for @JJWatt‼️#HOUvsDEN pic.twitter.com/JD7f3Zychd
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) November 4, 2018
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