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Super Bowl betting in Las Vegas sportsbooks surpassed $119 million dollars in 2017. Worldwide figures are estimated to be 40 times larger, totalling a whopping $4.76 billion dollars. From casual bettors to professional gamblers, those wanting to place action on the game grow year over year. Obviously, whether a simple $10 bet is being placed, or a seven-digit wager is on the line, one wants to employ a wagering strategy that will yield the best chances of winning.
- 1 Super Bowl Betting Strategy
Super Bowl Betting Strategy
What does this mean if you are planning to wager on the favorite?
It means that you should get in as early as possible. This is especially true if your team is strongly favored. While spreads and money lines do fluctuate in both directions, runaway Super Bowl favorites will usually offer you the best value early on.
It is best to get your bet in before the influx of money widens the spread that must be covered or makes the money line sky rocket. Getting in at -9 1/2 is way better than waiting until your team is -11. Likewise, laying 280 to win 100 is a much better value than having to lay 350 to win the same amount.
Money Line Bets
Some Super Bowl betting wagerers find money line bets as the most secure way to back a heavy favorite. However, this level of wagering security does come with some sacrifice, namely in your risk to reward ratio. The amount that you risk will be one-and-a-half to three times larger than the amount that you expect to win. The attractive side to this is that you don’t have to worry about your team covering a spread. A straight up win is all you need.
Alternate Point Spreads
The traditional bet for the favorite to cover the spread, however, also has derivatives that savvy bettors can take advantage of. These come in the form of alternate point spreads. Take as an example a team that is favored to win the Super Bowl betting by 10 1/2 points. Following your analysis you feel confident that your team will win, but you feel that a margin of victory larger than a touchdown and a field goal is just too large for your comfort zone.
You’d feel much more comfortable if your team only had to cover 6 1/2 or 7 points. This is where alternate point spreads have a role in your “follow the favorite” strategy. You can “purchase” alternate point spreads for the favorite, making the spread more palatable. These alternate spreads can be used to increase or decrease the normal spread in half-point increments.
Of course, this action comes with a cost. Whereas placing a bet with the normal spread is a -110 proposition, you risk 110 to win 100; using alternate spreads modifies the money line that is attached to it. The narrower that you make the spread that the favorite must cover, the more expensive that the money line becomes.
Alternate Point Spreads Example
As an example, if the normal Super Bowl betting spread has the Patriots as minus 10 1/2 favorites, and you want to take the Patriots with an alternate spread of minus 9, the amount that you are expected to risk to win 100 might jump to 185, up from the standard 110.
Alternate spreads can also be used to leverage up your potential winnings. If the spread for the Super Bowl favorite is, by your trusted analysis, too low, you can increase this spread above the normal line. Make a 6 1/2 point favorite a 7 1/2 point favorite, as an example. In this case, if the favorite covers the higher alternate spread you could win, say, 135 for each 100 wagered. By taking on slightly more risk, your reward increases as well.
The same ‘alternate spread’ concept also applies to the over/under line. By either lowering or raising the normal total line, you can take on more security for your bet by sacrificing the amount of your potential return, or you can increment your potential winnings by assuming larger risk.
Bet on Super Bowl’s Quarters and Halves
A variation of the “bet the favorite” strategy incorporates betting on the Super Bowl’s individual quarters and halves. Just as with the game as a whole, each quarter and half has its own point spread, money line and over/under. This can be seen as playing four games in one. It also allows for the bettor to take into account the teams actions from the earlier quarters and incorporate them into their live betting strategy. This allows the bettor the flexibility to follow the actual game flow in addition to the money.
The favorite in one quarter might not be the favorite in the following quarters. It allows for a mechanism to develop to fine tune your wagers as the game progresses. This can be very useful when there is no clear favorite. Usually in those circumstances it will be the actual play action that will dictate who is the real favorite and the only way to follow the favorite in that situation is with quarter and half betting.
Parlays and teasers, quite popular with bettors in the regular season, are also available for the Super Bowl. The only difference being that instead of making your selections across the entire weekly card of matchups, all of your selections must come from the Super Bowl game itself. Bettors can take the money line and parlay it to the totals, or the spread to the totals. Depending on the wagering site, some may even allow the bettor to parlay Super Bowl selections with the outcome of other sporting events from that same day.
Super Bowl Prop Bets
Most betting sites and brick and mortar sportsbooks also offer broad menus for Super Bowl prop bets. Everything, from which team will score first, to whether or not there will be a safety, to the result of the coin toss is included in this motley mix of proposition bets. While not strictly part of a “favorite strategy” they can serve as a way to add excitement to the game for those that find a “bet the favorite” strategy too boring. Secure a sound bet on a favorite and use a larger bucket of smaller prop bets to keep the game interesting, so to speak.
What is clear is that using a strategy that focuses on the Super Bowl favorite does not have to deny the bettor of options. It can be used to lower risk, just as it can be used to maximize reward. It can even be used to incorporate last minute changes in play analysis once the game has already started. From every angle, the favorite can bring you, the bettor, a positive outcome.
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